My vision of 2030

A debate on Facebook with Mauritius Seegar made me offer my own opinion on the world in 2030. The debate was based on a presentation by Tony Seba in Oslo Norway, where he suggested that all vehicles (or at least most) would be electric and fully automated by 2030.

by 2030 all vehicles (cars, buses, trucks) will be electric, self-driving and ride sharing – Tony Seba 2016

My estimate, is that 20 to 80% of all cars will be electric and fully automated by 2030, but that a lot of countries will lag long behind on the implementation of automated cars, because of finances, entrenched market forces, apathy, legal issues, distrust of automated vehicles and existing fleets still being usable. I suspect some countries will totally switch over and never look back though.

Note for future me: This was based on about 5 mins of thought whilst geeking out at Herman Schulz.

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